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PUBLIC: SPY 233 should be support – Dr. J's Market Thoughts Press "Enter" to skip to content

PUBLIC: SPY 233 should be support

Looking at a variety of charts over the past few weeks once the correction for 2400 S&P500 started, I’ve found plenty of support in the 2340-2360 range on the index.  If SPY gets below $233, it is probably time to expect a change in the long term signal once the Market Alert Signal gets generated over the next few months.  Just anticipating, not predicting or forecasting that to occur.  By most measures, the market action since 2400 has created a very oversold position in the market and a bounce would not be unexpected.  There are also strong signals that indicate that 2400 was NOT the final high in the intermediate term future.  So for now, keep an eye on SPY $233…the market can’t lose too much until that area gets taken out decisively.

Remember, SPY will go “ex-dividend” after next Thursday’s trading, so there will be a “gap” in the chart of roughly $2 again between March 16, and March 17.


  1. Michael
    Michael March 12, 2017

    Hi Dr J

    I was wondering, what is the average buy to sell time frame for your system looking back to 1991? I know you stated there were 11 buy and sell cycles between 1991 and Nov 2016. What was the longest time period after having a buy signal to generating a sell signal during the 1991 to 2016 time period?

    Thanks, Mike B.

    • Dr. J
      Dr. J March 13, 2017

      Every SELL is listed in the system page (with commentary on where the signal may have not been taken) so you can see when they triggered. There are some pretty long stretches in there, especially considering the bull run that happened after 1985! This system again just looks for the condition that has occurred prior to previous “events” in the market that hurt investors. It just flashes caution signals, that is all.

      To see that page, log out, the top level menu changes to say “The system explained” and you can read that page for the SELL signals generated. Log back in to see normal member content. If that doesn’t help, perhaps this link will:


  2. Michael
    Michael March 11, 2017

    Dr. J

    In looking at historic performances of ETF’s from Spy to SSO to UPRO I know the leveraged ones are to be used for short term investing, but looking over YTD, 1yr, 3 yr, 5 yr, and 10 yr statistics the leveraged funds seem to follow fairly closely to their stated objectives.


    YTD. 5.79% 11.57%. 17.66%

    1 yr. 24.80%. 52.23%. 84.95%

    3 yr. 10.51%. 18.56%. 25.63%

    5yr. 13.86%. 26.03%. 37.99%

    10 yr. 7.53%. 8.51%. —-

    Looking at those long-term results for the last 5 years why not use the leveraged funds? I’m guessing the poor results on the 10 year figures have to do with the catastrophic losses in 2007 and 2008, during which your system would have had the investor on the sidelines. What’s your analysis of these statistics.

    Thanks, Mike B

    • Dr. J
      Dr. J March 13, 2017

      Nothing wrong with using leverage IF you are comfortable with the leverage. I use futures which are even more leveraged than UPRO, but track completely differently than the ETF products. Your research is sound, no argument against using them if you pay attention. Leverage cuts both way and this system doesn’t call the top, it just gets you out before a precipitous drop typically. Good question.

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