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Hot knife update – Dr. J's Market Thoughts Press "Enter" to skip to content

Hot knife update

On the longer term investor view of the market, the SPY tagged the bottom of the 2 year channel this morning with a price just under $274.  A quick spike below this channel with a return almost immediately (within the same day or the very next day) will be the only way I’m comfortable making a heroic stab at “catching the falling knife.”  I need to see some buyers emerge.  Today is holding “some” promise that a bottom may be put in, but there are still a few hours of trading left to go before the final signature on this particular day is in the books.  Just wanted to update those that follow about the channel.  If that was your buy point, then you reached your potential buy target today.  I will do my best to post a more thorough update later tonight or tomorrow regarding developments on the markets.


AFTER MARKET UPDATE:  The market had another afternoon sell-off again today.  However, there was a very nice reaction off the lows near 2700 on the S&P500 mid-afternoon that almost brought the market back to yesterday’s close.  We are right at the bottom of the channel and closed right at the bottom trendline.  If you believe in the channel and are willing to take the risk, this is a valid buy point just under the Market Alert Line.  If you read the member’s post from yesterday, know your risk before you take that plunge!  So far, there has NOT been a solid bottoming signal in the markets, so any buy right now is speculative and akin to “catching a falling knife.”  Could the market bottom with that channel trendline tag today?  Yup.  I’d say Friday or Monday might give us a better opportunity to find a more secure bottom than today’s action indicates.  Just my thoughts, which is what I publish here.  My thoughts.  What you do with them is completely up to you.