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Was THAT the bottom? – Dr. J's Market Thoughts Press "Enter" to skip to content

Was THAT the bottom?

Again, two charts, the weekly is on top, the daily on the bottom.

Weekly chart thoughts:

If the green candle forming this week (with the large green arrow under it) continues to look like this ALL WEEK LONG until Friday 11/2/18, then there is a chance we have bottomed in the near term and a revisit of the February 2018 lows has been postponed.  But, this is Tuesday and Friday is a LONG way away.  Consider this a preliminary warning of what could be happening.  Also, note the potential resistance areas starting around $277 and running up to $280.  Getting back inside the white channel and breaking above $277 would be potential signs we bottomed near $260 and “Buy the Dip” would win again.  If you refer back to the previous PUBLIC post, you’ll see that we may have bottomed near the top of the yellow circle indicating a range of prices a bottom pattern could emerge.  See below on the Daily chart thoughts however, while we may have reach a price point where bottoming can occur, I’m not sure we’ve confirmed a bottom is in.  Read on to find out why.

Daily chart thoughts:

I circled the volume bars of the February lows in purple and the recent action in October in yellow.  The purple period of time had a few days at or above 300 Million shares traded.  So far, NONE of the days in the the yellow period has exceeded 280 Million.  While volume has picked up relative to the action between March and September, volume has NOT YET CONFIRMED that a bottom is in.  Note the February bottom in purple..the green bars are TALLER than the red volume bars indicating more interest in buying than selling (crudely stated).  In the yellow circle, there have been ZERO green bars larger the preceding day’s red volume bars.  My thought:  we haven’t seen PANIC selling offer a washout and the buying volume hasn’t been confirming true interest in comparison to the February lows.

The monthly alert signal will be e-mailed tomorrow night and a protected blog post will go up as well.  A subscription allows you to review ALL past posts.  Let’s watch to see if a bottom was put in yesterday, but volume analysis says to be skeptical for now.